Tag: International Finance

Every Day Is a Great Day For Economics. Let’s Solve Two (Exchange Rate) Problems.

Chicago Cubs Hall of Fame shortstop Ernie Banks was known for saying “It’s a great day for baseball. Let’s play two!” (Photo from the Baseball Hall of Fame)

First Solved Problem: Exchange Rates and Tourism

Supports: Macroeconomics, Chapter 18, Sections 18.2 and 18.6; and Economics, Chapter 28, Sections 28.2 and 28.6.

The headline of an article on nbcnews.com is: “The Fed May Soon Cut Interest Rates. That Could Make Your Next Trip Abroad More Expensive.”

  1. Briefly explain the difference between a “strong dollar” and a “weak dollar.”
  2. If you are going to spend two weeks on vacation in France, would you prefer that the dollar be strong or weak during that time? Briefly explain.
  3. Briefly explain the connection between Federal Reserve monetary policy and the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and other currencies.
  4. Use your answers to parts a., b., and c. to explain what the headline means. 

Solving the Problem

Step 1: Review the chapter material. This problem is about the effect of changes in exchange rates on import and export prices and the effect of changes in interest rates on exchange rates, so you may want to review Chapter 18, Sections 18.2 and 18.6.

Step 2: Answer part a. by explaining the difference between a “strong dollar” and a “weak dollar.” Generally, the U.S. dollar is called strong when it exchanges for more units of foreign currencies and is called weak when it exchanges for fewer units of foreign currencies. (Economists are less likely to use the phrases “strong dollar” and “weak dollar” than are members of the media.)

Step 3: Answer part b. by expalining whether you would like the U.S. dollar to be weak or strong during your vacation in France. France uses the euro as its currency. As a tourist, you will buy goods and services—such as restaurant meals and souvenirs—in euros. You would like the dollar to be strong because then you will be able to use fewer dollars to exhange for the euros you need to buy goods and services during your vacation.

Step 4: Answer part c. by explaining how Federal Reserve monetary policy affects the exchange rate. As we discuss in Section 18.6, when the Fed wants to pursue an expansionary monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduces its target for the federal funds rate, which typically results in other interest rates also declining. Lower interest rates make U.S. financial asses, such as Treasury bonds, less attractive relative to foreign financial assets, such as bonds issued by the French government. As a result the demand for U.S. dollars falls relative to the demand for foreign currencies, reducing the exchange rate between the dollar and other currencies. In other words, an expansionary monetary policy will result in a weaker dollar.

Step 5: Answer part d. by using your answers to parts a., b., and c. to expalin what the headline means. The headline indicates that the Fed may soon engage in an expansionary monetary policy, which will result in lower interest rates in the United States, leading to a weaker U.S. dollar. The weaker the dollar, the more dollars you will have to exchange to receive the same number of units of a foreign currency, causing you to have to spend more dollars to pay for the same goods and services during your trip. So, the Fed taking action to reduce interest rates will make your trip abroad more expensive.

Second Solved Problem: Solved Problem: Javier Milei and Argentina’s Exchange Rate Policy

Supports: Macroeconomics, Chapter 18, Sections 18.2 and 18.3; and Economics, Chapter 28, Sections 28.2 and 28.3.

Javier Milei was elected president of Argentina in December 2023. During the presidential campaign he proposed using market-based policies to address Argentina’s economic problems, particularly high rates of inflation and low rates of economic growth. One part of his program involves moving the government away from controlling the value of the peso either by allowing it to float or by making the U.S. dollar legal tender in Argentina. Initially, however, although Milei devalued the peso against the dollar, he didn’t allow the peso to float, keeping the peso pegged against the value of the dollar. An article in the Economist states that many economists believe that the peso is overvalued. The article notes that: “A pricey peso scares off tourists, makes exports expensive and deters investors.” The article also notes that allowing the peso to float “would probably push up inflation.”

  1. Briefly explain what it means for a government to allow its currency to float.
  2. What does it mean to say that a county’s currency is overvalued?
  3. What does the article mean by a “pricey peso”? Why would a pricey peso scare off tourists, make exports expensive, and deter investors?
  4. Why would allowing the peso to float probably push up inflation? 

Solving the Problem

Step 1: Review the chapter material. This problem is about exchange rates and exchange rate systems, so you may want to review Chapter 18, Sections 18.2 18.3.

Step 2: Answer part a. by explaining what it means for a government to allow its currency to float. As we discuss in Section 18.3, when a government allows its currency to float it allows the exchange rate between its currency and other currencies to be determined by demand and supply in foreign exchange markets.

Step 3: Answer part b. by expalining what it means for a country’s currency to be overvalued. A currency is overvalued if a government pegs the exchange rate above the market equilibrium exchange rate.

Step 4: Answer part c. by explaining what a “pricey peso” means and why a pricey peso might scare off tourists, make exports expensive, and deter investors. In the context of this article, a pricey peso means an overvalued peso—one that is pegged above the market equilibrium exchange rate, as we noted in the answer to part b. If the peso is overvalued relative to other currencies, then tourists from those countries will find the prices of goods and services in Argentina to be high relative to the prices of those goods and services priced in their domestic currencies. We would expect that fewer foreing tourists would visit Argentina. A pricey peso would make the prices of Argentine exports higher in terms of U.S. dollars, euros, and other currencies. Those high prices will cause a decline in Argentine exports. Finally, a pricey peso will also discourage foreign investors from investing in Argentina because they will receive fewer units of their domestic currency in exchange for the pesos they earn from their investments in Argentina.

Step 5: Answer part d. by explaining why the Argentine government allowing the peso to float would likely increase inflation. The Argentine peso is overvalued, so allowing it to float will cause the value of the peso to decline relative to other currencies. As a result, the peso price of imports will increase. The prices of imported goods and services are included in the price indexes used to measure inflation, so floating the peso will likely increase the inflation rate in Argentina.

Glenn’s Take on the Proposal at the G7 Meeting to Impose a Minimum Tax on Corporate Profits

   The G7 (or Group of 7) is an organization of seven large economies: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Only democratic countries are included, so China is not a member. At a recent meeting attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the group agreed to adopt a uniform corporate tax rate of at least 15 percent.

Glenn discusses this decision in the following opinion column published in the Financial Times.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, at a recent meeting of the G7.

Governments Should Tax Cash Flow, Not Global Corporate Income

From the Biden administration’s inception, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has championed a global minimum tax for corporations. While the US walked back from a request for a 21 per cent rate (which was linked to an objective of raising the current US corporate tax of 21 per cent to between 25 and 28 per cent), it did lock in with G7 finance ministers a rate of at least 15 per cent. Secretary Yellen praised the move: “That global minimum tax would end the race to the bottom in corporate taxation, and ensure fairness for the middle class and working people in the US and around the world.”

It is tough to argue that corporate income shouldn’t pay its “fair share”. But the global minimum tax raises both political and economic questions.

Politics first. Approval in the US is likely to be tough. The minimum tax is estimated by the OECD to raise as much as $50bn-$80bn per year, much of it from successful American firms. Revenue to the US Treasury would be part of this amount, but small relative to the substantial expansion in spending proposed by the Biden administration. Will other governments engage their own political costs to achieve a deal that may be ephemeral if it fails to get US legislative approval? Even if the deal succeeds, might it hand a competitive victory to China? As a non-party to G7 or OECD proposals, could it not use both tax rates and subsidies to draw more investment to China?

But it is on economics that the global minimum tax draws more sensitive questions in two areas. The first is the design of the tax base. The second addresses the foundational question of the problem policymakers are trying to solve and whether the new minimum tax is the best way to do so.

A 15 per cent rate is not particularly useful without an agreement on what the tax base is. Particularly for the US, home to many very profitable technology companies, the concern should arise that countries will use special taxes and subsidies that effectively target certain industries. The US has had a version of a minimum tax of foreign earnings since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 enshrined GILTI (Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income) provision into law. The Biden administration wants to use the new global minimum tax to raise the GILTI rate and expand the tax base by eliminating a GILTI deduction for overseas plant and equipment investments.

For a 15 per cent minimum rate to make sense, countries would need a uniform tax base. Presumably, the goal of the new minimum tax is to limit the benefits to companies of shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions, not to distort where those firms invest. The combination of a global minimum tax with the broad base advocated by the Biden administration could reduce cross-border investments and reduce the profitability of large multinational firms.

A still deeper economic issue is that of who bears the tax burden. I noted above that projected revenue increases are small compared to G7 government spending levels. It is not corporations who would pay more, but capital owners generally and workers, according to contemporary economic views of who bears the burden of the tax.

There is a better way to achieve what Yellen and her finance minister colleagues are trying to accomplish. To begin with, countries could allow full expensing of investment. That approach would move the tax system away from a corporate income tax toward a cash flow tax, long favoured by economists. In this revision, the minimum tax would not distort new investment decisions. It would also push the tax burden on to economic rents—profits in excess of the normal return to capital—better satisfying the apparent G7 goal of garnering more revenue from the most profitable large companies. And such a system would be simpler to administer, as multinationals would not need to set up different ways to track deductible investment costs over time in different countries.

In the debate leading up to the 2017 US tax law changes, Congress considered a version of this idea in a destination-based cash flow tax. Like a value added tax, this would tax corporate profits based on cash flows in a given country. The reform, which foundered on the political desirability of border adjustments, limits tax biases against investment and boosts tax fairness.

Returning to the numbers: countries with large levels of public spending relative to gross domestic product, as the Biden administration proposes, fund it mainly with value added taxes, not traditional corporate income taxes. A better global tax system is possible, but it starts with a verdict of “not GILTI.”