Solved Problem: How Can Total Employment and the Unemployment Rate Both Increase?

Photo from the New York Times.

Supports: Macroeconomics, Chapter 9, Section 9.1, Economics Chapter 19, Section 19.1, and Essentials of Economics, Chapter 13, Section 13.1.

As it does on the first Friday of each month, on September 2, 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report for August 2022. According to the household survey data in the report, total employment in the U.S. economy increased in August by 442,000 compared with July. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5 percent in July to 3.7 percent in August. According to the establishment survey, the total number of workers on payrolls increased in August by 315,000 compared with July.

  1. How are the data in the household survey collected? How are the data in the establishment survey collected?
  2. Why are the estimated increases in employment from July to August 2022 in the two surveys different? 
  3. Briefly explain how it is possible for the household survey to report in a given month that both total employment and the unemployment rate increased.

Solving the Problem

Step 1: Review the chapter material. This problem is about how the BLS reports data on employment and unemployment, so you may want to review Chapter 9, Section 9.1, “Measuring the Unemployment Rate, the Labor Force Participation Rate, and the Employment–Population Ratio.” 

Step 2: Answer part a. by explaining how the data from the two surveys are collected. As discussed in Section 9.1, the data in the household survey is from interviews with a sample of 60,000 households, chosen to represent the U.S. population. The data in the establishment survey—sometimes called the payroll survey in media stories—is from a sample of 300,000 establishments (factories, stores, and offices).  

Step 3: Answer part b. by explaining why the estimated increase in employment is different in the two surveys.  First note that the BLS intends the surveys to estimate two different measures of employment. The household survey includes people working at jobs of all types, including people who are self-employed or who are unpaid family workers, whereas the establishment survey includes only people who appear on a non-agricultural firm’s payroll, so the self-employed, farm workers, and unpaid family workers aren’t counted. Second, the data are collected from surveys and so—like all estimates that rely on surveys—will have some measurement error.  That is, the actual increase in employment—either total employment in the household survey or payroll employment in the establishment survey—is likely to be larger or smaller than the reported estimates. The estimates in the establishment survey are revised in later months as the BLS receives additional data on payroll employment. In contrast, the estimates in household survey are ordinarily not revised because they are based only on a survey conducted once per month.  

Step 4: Answer part c. by explaining how in a given month the household survey may report an increase in both employment and the unemployment rate.  The BLS’s estimate of the unemployment is calculated from responses to the household survey. (The establishment survey doesn’t report an estimate of the unemployment rate.) The unemployment rate equals the total number of people unemployed divided by the labor force, multiplied by 100. The labor force equals the sum of the employed and the unemployed. If the number of people employed increases—thereby increasing the denominator in the unemployment rate equation—while the number of people unemployed remains the same or falls, as a matter of arithmetic the unemployment rate will have to fall. 

The BLS reported that the unemployment rate in August 2022 rose even though total employment increased. That outcome is possible only if the number of people who are unemployed also increased, resulting in a proportionally larger increase in the numerator in the unemployment equation relative to the denominator. In fact, the BLS estimated that the number of people unemployed increased by 344,000 from July to August 2022. Employment and unemployment both increasing during a month happens fairly often during an economic expansion as some people who had been out of the labor force—and, therefore, not counted by the BLS as being unemployed—begin to search for work during the month but don’t find jobs.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation—August 2022,” bls.gov, September 2, 2022.  

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