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CPI Inflation Worsens, As Expected
Image generated by ChatGPT Today (May 12), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on the consumer price index (CPI) for April. As expected, higher energy prices resulting from the conflict in Iran led to a jump in inflation. The following figure compares headline CPI inflation (the blue line) and core CPI inflation (the red line). Headline inflation…
Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report
Image generated by ChatGPT This morning (May 8), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report (often called the “jobs report”) for April. The report showed a stronger than expected increase in employment. The jobs report has two estimates of the change in employment during the month: one estimate from the establishment survey, often referred…
Two Releases from the BEA this Morning Show Steady GDP Growth and Rising Inflation
Image created by ChatGPT of the Department of Commerce building in Washington, DC The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released two reports this morning: “GDP (Advance Estimate), 1st Quarter 2026” and “Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026.” The BEA estimates that real GDP grew at annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of…
FOMC Holds Its Target for the Federal Funds Rate Constant as Powell Announces that He Intends to Remain on the BoG
Screenshot of Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his FOMC press conference on April 29 Today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had the expected result with the committee deciding to leave unchanged its target for the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent. The…
Glenn and Tony’s Excellent AI Adventure
Many thanks to Matt O’Brien for producing this comic!
Glenn on Adam Smith and the Midterm Elections
Image created by ChatGPT This opinion column was first published on Project Syndicate. Adam Smith on the U.S. Midterms The Wealth of Nations offers a useful lens for understanding why US President Donald Trump’s mercantilist agenda has fallen short of its own stated goals. It also points to a better path, combining competitive markets with…
Glenn’s Advice for Kevin Warsh
The Marriner S. Eccles building, headquarters of the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC. Image from federalreserve.gov. The following opinion column appeared in the Financial Times. What Warsh Should Do at the Fed Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve comes at a pivotal time for the American economy and for…
NEW! 4-11-26 Podcast – Glenn Hubbard & Tony O’Brien discuss Fed transition, inflation, and AI security!
What happens when the Fed chair’s seat is about to change hands—and inflation still won’t behave? In this episode of the Hubbard & O’Brien Economics Podcast, Tony O’Brien and Glenn Hubbard break down the looming transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh, what the latest inflation and energy-price pressures mean for interest rates, and why…
A Double Dose of Bad Inflation News
Image generated by ChatGPT This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on the consumer price index (CPI) for March. Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released monthly data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for February as part of its “Personal Income and Outlays” report. Both reports showed…
Job Market Bounces Back from Weak Start to the Year
Image created by ChatGPT This morning (April 3), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report (often called the “jobs report”) for March. The report showed a stronger than expected increase in employment. The jobs report has two estimates of the change in employment during the month: one estimate from the establishment survey, often…
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