Solved Problem: How Can Total Employment and the Unemployment Rate Both Increase at the Same Time?

Supports: Macroeconomics, Chapter 9, Economics, Chapter 19, and Essentials of Economics, Chapter 13.

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A recent article on axios.com notes that from April 2023 to July 2024, the U.S. economy generated an average net increase of 177,000 jobs per month. Despite that job growth, the unemployment rate during that period increased by 0.8 percentage point. The article observes that: “At first glance, the combination of a rising unemployment rate and strong jobs growth simply does not compute.” How is it possible during a given period for both total employment and the unemployment rate to increase?

Solving the Problem
Step 1: Review the chapter material. This problem is about calculating the unemployment rate, so you may want to review Chapter 9, Section 9.1, “Measuring the Unemployment Rate, the Labor Force Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio.” 

Step 2: Answer the question by explaining how it’s possible for both the total number of people employed and the unemployment rate to both increase during the same period.  The unemployment rate is equal to the number of people unemployed divided by the number of people in the labor force (multiplied by 100). The labor force equals the sum of the number of people employed and the number of people unemployed.

Let’s consider the situation in a particular month. Suppose that the unemployment rate in the previous month was 4 percent. If, during the current month, both the number of people employed and the number of people unemployed increase, the unemployment rate will increase if the increase in the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the increase in the labor force is greater than 4 percent. The unemployment rate will decrease if the increase in the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the increase in the labor force is less than 4 percent.  

Consider a simple numerical example. Suppose that in the previous month there were 96 people employed and 4 people unemployed. In that case, the unemployment rate was (4/(96 + 4)) x 100 = 4.0%. 

Suppose that during the month the number of people employed increases by 30 and the number of people unemployed increases by 1. In that case, there are now 126 people employed and 5 people unemployed. The unemployment rate will have fallen from 4.0% to (5/(126 + 5)) x 100 = 3.8%.

Now suppose that the number of people employed increased by 30 and the number of people unemployed increases by 3. The unemployment will have risen from 4.0% to (7/(126 + 7)) x 100 = 5.3%.

We can conclude that if both the total number of people employed and the total number of people unemployed increase during a during a period of time, it’s possible for the unemployment rate to also increase.