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New Real GDP Data Shows that Growth Slowed Substantially in the Fourth Quarter … or Did It?
Image created by ChatGPT Recent macro data had been showing relatively strong growth in output and steady growth in employment. This morning’s release of the initial estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) was expected to show continuing solid growth. (The report can be…
CPI Inflation Comes in Lower than Expected
Image created by ChatGPT There was good news this morning on inflation. (Although maybe not quite good enough to justify the exuberance of the people in the AI-generated image above!) The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on the consumer price index (CPI) for January. The following figure compares headline CPI inflation (the blue line) and core…
Healthcare Jobs Dominate Employment Growth in the United States
Image created by ChatGPT It’s not surprising that employment in health care has been increasing. The National Health Expenditure (NHE) Projections Model of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services estimates that the long-run income elasticity of demand for private personal health care spending is 1.58. So, a 10 percent increase in U.S. disposable personal…
Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report Accompanied by a Large Downward Annual Benchmark Revision
Image created by ChatGPT This morning (February 11), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report (often called the “jobs report”) for January. The report was originally scheduled to be released last Friday but was postponed by the brief federal government shutdown. The data in the report show that the labor market was much…
December JOLTS Report Shows Possible Labor Market Weakening
Image created by ChatGPT Today (February 5), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Job Openings and Labor Turnover” (JOLTS) report for December 2025. The report indicated that labor market conditions may be weakening. The following figure shows that the rate of job openings fell to 3.9 percent in December from 4.2 percent in…
President Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed Chair
Photo of Kevin Warsh from Bloomberg News via the Wall Street Journal This morning, President Trump ended the suspense over who he would nominate for Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve by choosing Kevin Warsh. Warsh was considered one of the four finalists, along with Kevin Hassett, director of the National…
As Expected, the FOMC Keeps the Federal Funds Rate Target Unchanged
Photo of Fed Chair Jerome Powell from federalreserve.gov Today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had the expected result with the committee deciding to keep its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent. Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the…
Cracker Barrel’s Dilemma: What Happens When Your Market Niche Shrinks?
Cracker Barrel’s original logo on the left and the logo it temporarily adopted in 2025 on the right. (Logos from nrn.com) Dan Evins opened the first Cracker Barrel Old Country Store on Highway 109 in Lebanon, Tennessee in 1969 to attract more customers to his Shell service station. The restaurant offered traditional Southern-style food such…
PCE Inflation Remains Steady While Real Personal Consumption Spending Rises
Image created by ChatGPT On January 22, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released monthly data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and on real personal consumption spending for October and November as part of its “Personal Income and Outlays” report. Because of the federal government shutdown, two months of data were released…
Solved Problem: The Effect of a Cap on Credit Card Interest Rates
Supports: Macroeconomics Chapter 4, Section 4.3, and Chapter 14, Section 14.3 and Economics, Chapter 4, Section 4.3, and Chapter 24, Section 24.3. Image created by ChatGPT Credit cards provide two main services: 1) They are more convenient to use than cash and are more widely accepted than are personal checks, and 2) they are a…
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